The Next Next 300-Game Winner

With Randy Johnson reaching the 300-win mark yesterday, I set out to identify some contenders for the next player to achieve the milestone. In order to populate this list I took in to account those who have the combination of youth and already achieved wins to see who is most likely to reach 300.

My projections for this season were taken from each player's profile on ESPN.com. Further, I sought to find a "magic number" for determining who is a contender and who is a pretender. This number has come in the form of wins per season through age forty. At present it is reasonable to assume that if a player is to reach 300 wins, they will also play until at least age forty. As such, that age is the benchmark for my projections.

In calculating average wins per season I took in to account the track records of recent 300 game winners Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Randy Johnson. Each pitcher was/is playing past age forty, and slightly over twenty full seasons in the league. Given the fact that the average win total per 162 games for these 300-game winners were 16, 15, and 17, players requiring 18 or fewer wins (some leeway should be awarded, I think) between now and their age 40 season will be considered. However it is worth noting that this is not an exhaustive list, but rather merely those who I feel are most likely to reach 300 wins.

The List:

Felix Hernandez: Age 23, 44 wins, projects to have 54 wins at current season's end.
King Felix has one major advantage in the hunt for 300 wins: he was young when he arrived in the big leagues. Given the fact that Hernandez was only 19 when he was called up (winning four games that season) he will be comfortably over fifty wins by season's end, all this despite the fact that he has not played for any especially strong Mariner teams in his five-ish seasons in the league.

Few doubt that Felix has the pure "stuff" to reach 300 wins, even though he hasn't had that "breakout" season in which he will seriously compete for a Cy Young. Such a season is only a matter of time, however, and Felix pitches with fluid enough mechanics that, as a power pitcher, he will likely be able to avoid an early-thirties flame-out. Lastly, if Hernandez pitches through his age forty season he will only need to average 14.5 wins per season to surpass 300, easily within the range of possibly.
The Verdict: Number One Contender!

Roy Halliday: Age 32, 140 wins, projects to have 158 wins at current season's end.
In a discussion of the "next 300 game winner" Roy Halliday must be one of the first discussed for a number of reasons. First, he is already thirty-two years old, and therefore more than likel within a decade of the end of his career. Additionally he is on pace to be comfortably over half way to 300 by season's end. At present, Halliday is as good as he's ever been. With this in mind, it is not difficult to believe he can string together the 17.75 wins per season he must average between now and age forty. If Halliday can challenge twenty wins per season for the next three to five years, he should be able to maintain the 13-15 win average in his twilight years and reach the milestone without much trouble.
The Verdict: Contender!


C.C. Sabathia: Age 28, 122 wins, projects to have 132 wins at current season's end.
Sabathia has always been a good pitcher, but his dominant 2008-2009 seasons vaulted him in to stardom. If he can continue with the kind of performances he's put together over the past two years, he will have a good chance of reaching 300.

Because he is so young (Sabathia got an early start, too, winning 17 games at age 20) Sabathia needs only to average 14 wins per season between now and age forty. The biggest challenge he is likely to face is health. Though he has been very healthy to date, Sabathia's epic size makes it difficult to fathom an injury-free career spanning twenty years. But then again, someone could have said the same thing about Randy Johnson (though Johnson is a little lacking in width compared to CC).
The Verdict: Contender!

Josh Beckett: Age 29, 95 wins, projects to have 107 wins at current season's end.
Beckett is a little behind Sabathia in his progress, which is understandable given the fact that he did not achieve double-digit wins in a season until age 25. However, Beckett has one advantage over everyone else on this list: he plays for the Boston Red Sox. That said, Beckett must average 17.5 wins per season between now and age 40 to reach the milestone.
The Verdict: Pretender!

Zach Duke: Age 26 , 32 wins, projects to have 44 wins at current season's end.
Zach Duke is a mega-talent that has flown under many fan's radar, and understandably so: Duke is in his fifth season and has posted a winning percentage of only .427. Of course Duke plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that has won either 67 or 68 games in each of Duke's four full seasons. Even so, Duke may still have a chance to reach 300, as he must average 18 wins per season between now and age forty, a number he is currently on pace to reach for the 2009 season. Duke will further be assisted by the fact that he will almost certainly be able to sign with a contender once he reaches free agency prior to the 2012 season, a move that should improve his chances dramatically. In the mean time he must hope that he doesn't fall too far behind the curve before that happens.
The Verdict: Pretender! (attributed to the Dread Pirate Curse)

Matt Cain: Age 24, 36 wins, projects to have 49 wins at current season's end.
I know most of you were likely expecting to see another Giant pitcher on this list, but I like to go against the grain. Cain is presently on pace to challenge the twenty-win mark for the first time in his career, and because he burst on to the scene at such a young age (he won 13 games in his age 21 season), he is a prime 300-win candidate. As it stands Cain must average 15.7 wins per season between now and age 40 to reach 300, a mark that may be difficult to reach if the SF offense continues its endemic ways over the next several seasons. However, Cain currently holds a 7-1 record, so a lack of run support has not prevented hiim from being among the league leaders in wins to date.
The Verdict: Pretender!

Zack Griencke: Age 25, 42 wins, projects to have 58 wins at current season's end.
In 2009 a disccusion of the next 300 game winner cannot be held without dropping the name Zack Griencke. Griencke has always been a "good" pitcher, but this season he has been unreal. Thanks to his early start in the league, Griencke only needs to average 16 wins between now an age forty, a feat the seems quite possible if he can string together a number of 20+ win seasons during his prime.
The Verdict: Hung Jury (until it is proven 2009 is not a fluke)

Justin Verlander: Age 26, 52 wins, projects to have 64 wins at current season's end.
As a streaky pitcher, Justin Verlander is a difficult pitcher to predict. In 2008 he was able to salvage an 11-win season despite a horrendous start. This, following his first two full seasons that were marked by 17 and 18-win efforts and sub 3.80 ERAs. This year it seems that he has worked through his 2008 struggles, and is project to win 17 or 18 games in 2009, At present, Verlander must win 16.8 games per season to reach 300 by age forty, a feat that seems quite possible. His greatest challenge may be reaching age forty, as many power pitchers flame out well before such a point. However, many power arms have been breaking with this norm in past years, with Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens both reaching the mark despite their power game.
The Verdict: Pretender! (health and consistency concerns)

Chad Billingsley: Age 24, 42 wins, projects to have 56 wins at current season's end.
This is perhaps a name that one may not be expecting to see on this list. However Billingsley has been steadily improving since his age 21 rookie season, posting win totals of 7, 12, and 16. Additionally he is on pace to challenge the 20-win mark in 2009. As a result Billingsley must average a very doable 15.25 wins between now and age 40. Certainly he must establish himself in the major leagues as a dependable pitcher year after year, but he is certainly off to a strong start.
The Verdict: Ask me in 2010

Johan Santana: Age 30, 116 wins, projects to have 131 wins at current season's end.
Johan is easily the best pitcher in the NL at present. In his age 30 season is is on pace to post his second 20-win season, and since becoming a full-time starter has already finished the season with an ERA under 3.00 an astonishing five times. Santana's greatest challenge is that he became a full-time starter late in his career (at age 25), which is a shame considering the fact that he made his ML debut at age 21. Despite all of this, though, Santana still has a shot at the 300-win mark, as he must average 16.9 wins between now and his age 40 season.
The Verdict: Contender! Despite his late start, he is just that good.

Mark Buehrle: Age 30, 128 wins, projects to have 139 wins at current season's end.
Since his first full season in the bigs at age 22, Buehrle has been very reliable for the White Sox, winning between 10 and 19 games each year. This season he will challenge the 20-win mark, and will likely have a chance to challenge 300 wins in ten years or so. To date Buehrle has average 15 wins per season, and in order to reach 300 by his age 40 season he must win an average of 16 wins per season. Hitting 300 will certainly be a challenge (I can see Buehrle retiring with a very Mussina-like record), 300 is certainly in the cards.
The Verdict: Pretender! All those innings (an average of 224 per season) will catch up to him.